Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Double Calendar

  • Under 33% volatility, stocks with high volatility go wild
  • $70+ stocks, (<$70 for single calendar) or ETF
  • Max loss 25%
  • Start taking profit at 20%, 1/3 at a time
  • start around 40 days (30 days for single calendar), stay in the trade for 14 to 20 days
  • 1> first 20 days --> adjustment between the short strikes and half way of break even at expiration, if the stock goes up to this adjustment point, move half of the puts up to the strike closest to the adjustment point.
  • 2> second 20 days --> adjustment between halfway to break even and break even
  • -->as it gets close the adjustment, take half off to the stock price (if the stock moves up, move the upper strike price calendar to at the money)

  • To see the profit potential, move the months to front months on the trade tab
  • use analysis tab for break even point 30 days from now.


Volatility: lower 1/3 of 1 year range, you want Volatility to go up, front month (selling) has a higher vol than the back front (buying)
Industry: don't want wecko
Price: $70+ or use ETF,5% last week, 10% last month, or 15% last 3 months
Earning: stay away from Earnings
Skew: day chart, week chart, month chart, must be less than 1 std-dev



Single Calendar:
Non directional, selling time and selling volatilities.
roll 5-15 days before the front month expires.
Never Adjust.

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