Close NUE, GMCR, ARG, reduced PCR

New Year's Eve:

Closed GMCR, had a good run but the move is tapering around 38.50 for 3 days, chances it is going to pull back.

Closed NUE around $47, very close to the original best case target at $47.50.

Closed ARG, stock still can't really break and hold $40.

Did not open any positions today, like what I see on TSCO, I may to wait until W-3 confirmed, it is on W-1 now.


shorts:
longs:

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GVA (another cont serv)

GNK stopped out! Too bad. Kind of disappointed.
But the gold stock EGO made it up.

Another Construction Services sector, GVA, it closed above 8 EMA today to confirmed the start of W-5. Target 1 is $50 and Target 2 is $60.


By chinltong at 2008-12-29

GMCR closed up $0.05 today, I moved the stop up to $0.20 below the low of today, and will do so everyday. Until it reaches my target of $42, or get stopped out.

shorts:
longs: GVA

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GNK (Water Transport) and PCR (Construction Service)

After the pull back for last week, Steel, Water Transport and Construction Service starting to bounce. NUE was highlighted 2 days ago and today:

GNK: Water Transportation, among the best relative performer,

Stop: 11.84; Target: 19.35, excellent Reward to Risk ratio on stock.

By chinltong at 2008-12-26

PCR: Construction Service, I traded JEC last time, but PCR performed better, so I switched.

Stop: 21.84; Target: 26.8

By chinltong at 2008-12-26

As planned, I closed 1/2 of my GMCR position and moved stop relative to the low of today to $37.34

By chinltong at 2008-12-26


shorts:
longs: PCR, GNK

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Long Steel (Ores)

Stock moves with the group as well as the entire market. Steel stocks have been pretty steady for the last 3 weeks, showing in flow of money into the industry group. I put up a trade on CLF before, now NUE seems to perform better. On top of that Phase 1 and Phase 2 scores are one of the best in the group.


By chinltong at 2008-12-25

shorts:
longs: NUE

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Managing your profit

Managing profit is very difficult, should I keep the position, should I get out, should I just sell half?

GMCR, it haven't reach my first target at 38.44 yet, but getting close. At that point I will sell half, move the stop tight and let it run to 42.00 my final target.



Merry Christmas everyone!

shorts:
longs:

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Gold and Fertilizer

Light volume day? what light volume day?

Went long today on a gold stock, like the fundamentals of the company and it takes up less capital for the same return when compared with DGP, the ultra long gold

EGO:


Another Fertilizer stock with strong fundamentals
ARG, also like SCL.


Best of success everyone.

shorts:
longs: EGO, ARG, DGP or GLD

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another Fibonacci example

See the chart of CNW:

the low is 200% extension.



coincidence?


shorts: CNW
longs:

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Longer Term Fibonacci Retracement

Buddy of mine reminded me to always use Fib on a longer term to look out for hidden support and resistance.

Case in point DRYS.



Still, the four forces of the market: Structural, Fundamental, Technical and Psychology all affect the price action. Lately the negative news has less and less effect on the market, maybe Wave 4 holds?

Couple of long ideas:
GMCR using EMA instead of simple MA, I could make the count. May not work like a text book and it is just an experiment.


DV, three green arrows:



shorts:
longs: GMCR, DV

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New Elliott Wave count on SPX and wrap up the open trades

I closed, CLF, EME, JEC, VMC, DRYS today

Leaving open are SMG, EBS and CBST.

Looks like the announcement from China that they are going to lower Gas and Diesel prices affected the crude oil and material prices all at once. Dollar when up a little on the news too.

Lesson learned on this week, winning is hard, losing is easy in the market. There are so many nuances, any trader can over look one and lost his pants.

See my count for the SPX, I think we are on the W-4 corrective now and it was confirmed with my buddy's more sensitive charts, which it is in a-b-c corrective mode now.



shorts:
longs:

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DRYS, CLF, EME long analysis

My rules allow me to enter on a piercing line candle formation, today we saw quite a few. These three also stocks met the 2:1 risk to reward ratio and moved the highest percentage in my watch list.

Many would know DRYS was once a $120+ stock during the commodities bubble.
Now after a steep decline, it completed a double bottom, pulled back and on the uptred.



CLF, a favorite of mine, also suffered from the steep decline, it formed a higher high and higher low already.



Finally EME, similar pattern as CLF.



shorts:
longs: DRYS, CLF, EME

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Bull Flag pull back to 50%

For directional traders like me, times are not easy on the index ETF for the last week or so. Long range day, but not much directional day to day movement.

Today is no exception, but the pull back is decent to 50% from the high couple weeks ago. Remember the giant drop to broke the lows.

There is a misprint on today's SPY chart, it should be a red candle all the way to 50%.



I am looking for a small range day tomorrow, hopefully a doji and break out on Monday. Wishful thinking. The recent bounces have been a higher low and higher high AND Inverted Head and Shoulder Breakout. So my 1-2 week posture is still bullish, having said that, I still trade bullish stocks in bullish market. And pull back in the market are watching days, not action days.



shorts:
longs:

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Bubble again? Case in point Steel

IT students (clients) have access to an Industry Ranking, while there was a drop off the cliff for many commodities related companies, Steel as a group climbed back on.

Check out GNA:

Just keep watching for the pull back on W-4 and a legit entry on for Elliot Wave 5, now it is still on W-3. Today it hits 161% extension, so it is probable that a pull back is coming.



Stock so cheap, it is better than option.

shorts:
longs: Steel, GNA

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