Today is the day before Thanksgiving, so it is extremely quiet in the office.
I browse and saw this post:
http://traderpsychology.blogspot.com/2008/11/farewell.html
He was staying goodbye and decided to spend time with his family in his final days.
I guess I am always the lucky one. At least I have my health and a loving family. Not sure what will I do should I have a popular blog and frequent readers. After reading this post, I will do nothing but to enjoy my next 9 days at home with my family.
Happy Thanksgiving. Be with your love ones!!
shorts:
longs:
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Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
what is a trend?
Text books say: a trend is a series of higher highs and higher lows, REGARDLESS of time frame.
Don't fall in love with the stocks on your watchlist, if none of them are trending, find something else.
Elliott Wave theory suggested after 3 waves up, there will be a consolidations A-B-C, same was suggested by the book: How to Trade in Stocks, stocks
A friend in IT told me that Elliott Wave theory demands:
shorts:
longs:
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Don't fall in love with the stocks on your watchlist, if none of them are trending, find something else.
Elliott Wave theory suggested after 3 waves up, there will be a consolidations A-B-C, same was suggested by the book: How to Trade in Stocks, stocks
A friend in IT told me that Elliott Wave theory demands:
- Wave 2 NEVER Moves beyond the Start of Wave 1 (otherwise it is a trend reversal).
- Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest, most of the time it is the longest.
- Wave 4 will not violate the price territory of Wave 1.
shorts:
longs:
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Friday, November 21, 2008
5% rally in the final hour
Really?
I thought it was a normal expiration Friday thingy.
One day up, follow by 3 days down.
It is hard to trade against the trend, the market posture, they are all Bearish.
shorts:
longs:
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Thursday, November 20, 2008
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Chapter XII
It talked about his encountered with a man he admired so much and led to one of his multiple destruction of wealth.
As I reflected for the last few months, I have been following a man that I admired. I listened to all of his web cast, I read and read again his blog posts. The fact the he claimed he was once a very successful trader, and he authority in his speeches, had played trick in my mind. I was ---sized" by him.
I lost sight of the the overall trend, of the overall sentiment. He is a perma-bull because he made money in the bear market, and I wanted to do the same. I actually wanted to make money in any market.
The outcome was terrible, I though he called the bottom many times during last few weeks of side-way movements. I loaded up on battered stocks and sectors, because they will bounce the first. I lost money. I did not lose my pants, but I lost more than I like. All the time, I could not figure out.
So the day came when my subscriptions expired and I no longer listen to him "religiously". And sitting down, with no voices echoed in my head, I looked out to the lake. It occurred to me that I made the mistake again. I lost money on the last consolidation during July and August. And determined to make up my own mind.
Best of success, everyone.
shorts: Everything
longs: ultra shorts, QID, TWM and so on
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It talked about his encountered with a man he admired so much and led to one of his multiple destruction of wealth.
As I reflected for the last few months, I have been following a man that I admired. I listened to all of his web cast, I read and read again his blog posts. The fact the he claimed he was once a very successful trader, and he authority in his speeches, had played trick in my mind. I was ---sized" by him.
I lost sight of the the overall trend, of the overall sentiment. He is a perma-bull because he made money in the bear market, and I wanted to do the same. I actually wanted to make money in any market.
The outcome was terrible, I though he called the bottom many times during last few weeks of side-way movements. I loaded up on battered stocks and sectors, because they will bounce the first. I lost money. I did not lose my pants, but I lost more than I like. All the time, I could not figure out.
So the day came when my subscriptions expired and I no longer listen to him "religiously". And sitting down, with no voices echoed in my head, I looked out to the lake. It occurred to me that I made the mistake again. I lost money on the last consolidation during July and August. And determined to make up my own mind.
Best of success, everyone.
shorts: Everything
longs: ultra shorts, QID, TWM and so on
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Elliott Wave, 5
I don't blog for living, so I just blog whenever I can.
Yesterday, S&P, Russell, NASDAQ broke support. Buying exhausted on Nov 13 with spectacular candle. I posted earlier that it has high probability to reverse the down trend. But it did not happen, subsequent days of selling has pushed the overall price to close below the low of Nov 13.
That lead to another interesting technical topic.
Elliott Wave, we should enter wave 5 on this downward move and will be looking forward to A-B-C once 5 is completed. However EW theory is very hard for me to use because it is difficult to see when the new wave is started or it was a continuation of the old wave. So it must be used on top of all other tools.
EW however is a reflection of human psychology, buying takes place then stock retraces to some level and buying resumes because it was at a point that people starting taking profit when buying stops.
After 3 legs up, stock usually consolidates in the A-B-C.
So we will see.
shorts:
longs:
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Yesterday, S&P, Russell, NASDAQ broke support. Buying exhausted on Nov 13 with spectacular candle. I posted earlier that it has high probability to reverse the down trend. But it did not happen, subsequent days of selling has pushed the overall price to close below the low of Nov 13.
That lead to another interesting technical topic.
Elliott Wave, we should enter wave 5 on this downward move and will be looking forward to A-B-C once 5 is completed. However EW theory is very hard for me to use because it is difficult to see when the new wave is started or it was a continuation of the old wave. So it must be used on top of all other tools.
EW however is a reflection of human psychology, buying takes place then stock retraces to some level and buying resumes because it was at a point that people starting taking profit when buying stops.
After 3 legs up, stock usually consolidates in the A-B-C.
So we will see.
shorts:
longs:
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Tuesday, November 18, 2008
HP or HPQ?
Have anyone wondered why stock symbols are selected?
Hewlett-Packard announced earnings, and stock popped, stock symbol HPQ. As shown here on the Google Finance site, stock symbol HP was more popular than HPQ.
By chinltong at 2008-11-18
Anyways, jokes aside. it was a giant spinning top at 2:00 pm, and it turned into positive at the end. At support, a Bullish trade entry on the DIA will be close above the high today. All technical evidence pointing to a bounce.
The market can do whatever she wants. Just be prepared if the market does not bounce instead broke support and falls more.
shorts:
longs:
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Hewlett-Packard announced earnings, and stock popped, stock symbol HPQ. As shown here on the Google Finance site, stock symbol HP was more popular than HPQ.
By chinltong at 2008-11-18
Anyways, jokes aside. it was a giant spinning top at 2:00 pm, and it turned into positive at the end. At support, a Bullish trade entry on the DIA will be close above the high today. All technical evidence pointing to a bounce.
The market can do whatever she wants. Just be prepared if the market does not bounce instead broke support and falls more.
shorts:
longs:
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Monday, November 17, 2008
High Pprobability Trades
Trend is your friend.
Spend time to cement the fact that the market is in strong down trend.
So the high probability trades are bearish. There are no doubt occasional bounced up, but the easier trades are bearish.
The four sisters are teasing the lows at close today. Watch the price action, it the low is broken tomorrow, the move will be spectacular.
On the other hand, if the market bounced tomorrow, it will be quick and furious too.
So keep your powder dry for tomorrow could be another interesting day. If it is not, what the heck just wait for a good entry.
shorts:
longs:
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Spend time to cement the fact that the market is in strong down trend.
So the high probability trades are bearish. There are no doubt occasional bounced up, but the easier trades are bearish.
The four sisters are teasing the lows at close today. Watch the price action, it the low is broken tomorrow, the move will be spectacular.
On the other hand, if the market bounced tomorrow, it will be quick and furious too.
So keep your powder dry for tomorrow could be another interesting day. If it is not, what the heck just wait for a good entry.
shorts:
longs:
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Thursday, November 13, 2008
Capitulation?
Look at the white candle in Dow, long shadow and possibly close above yesterday's high.
Too bullish to be ignore. Hope this round I can get my confidence back on the high horse
Today, I opened the following trades
INT stop 28.57
MYGN stop 63.40
AFAM stop 43.79
CBST stop 23.58
DDM stop 28.85
Again the Starbucks venti expresso frap did the trick.
shorts:
longs: INT, MYGN, AFAM, CBST, DDM
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Too bullish to be ignore. Hope this round I can get my confidence back on the high horse
Today, I opened the following trades
INT stop 28.57
MYGN stop 63.40
AFAM stop 43.79
CBST stop 23.58
DDM stop 28.85
Again the Starbucks venti expresso frap did the trick.
shorts:
longs: INT, MYGN, AFAM, CBST, DDM
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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Feeling lonely? Not!
I like to make myself feel good. I like to read stuff that would make my laugh and happy.
Today I read two articles:
By chinltong at 2008-11-12
And
By chinltong at 2008-11-12
So I was not the only one who got caught by the bull trap.
At the end of today, as suspected, my DDM and AFAM stopped out. And as I planned, I went long on
DXD, target 95, stop at 79.42
But seeing the other 3 sisters, they are pretty close to their last low, I would not be surprise it hestitates and move the other direction again.
shorts: DIA
longs:
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Today I read two articles:
By chinltong at 2008-11-12
And
By chinltong at 2008-11-12
So I was not the only one who got caught by the bull trap.
At the end of today, as suspected, my DDM and AFAM stopped out. And as I planned, I went long on
DXD, target 95, stop at 79.42
But seeing the other 3 sisters, they are pretty close to their last low, I would not be surprise it hestitates and move the other direction again.
shorts: DIA
longs:
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Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Frustrating day today
Every time I have a losing trade, I take a look at it and wondered if I have missed anything.
Today is no difference.
I've got stopped out:
AFAM, DDM, SPTN, ABAX, VIP, BTU.
counter trend trades: DDM, BTU, are high risk.
The uptrend was not confirmed on VIP, just a higher low, so it is still a counter trend trade.
AFAM, entry was correct. But there was no follow through.
SPTN, entry was NOT correct. 2 days after the bounce.
At the end of the day, I open new positions on DDM, and AFAM.
DDM, I draw a line at $32.80, which is also the 38% fib retracements.
there are 9 touches, on the line, high, low, open and close.
And today it closes at that line too.
One can also see a descending triangle forming, so if it breaks out to the down side, I will go long on some DXD.
AFAM: today its low touched the support with a long shadow.
shorts:
longs:AFAM, DDM
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Today is no difference.
I've got stopped out:
AFAM, DDM, SPTN, ABAX, VIP, BTU.
counter trend trades: DDM, BTU, are high risk.
The uptrend was not confirmed on VIP, just a higher low, so it is still a counter trend trade.
AFAM, entry was correct. But there was no follow through.
SPTN, entry was NOT correct. 2 days after the bounce.
At the end of the day, I open new positions on DDM, and AFAM.
DDM, I draw a line at $32.80, which is also the 38% fib retracements.
there are 9 touches, on the line, high, low, open and close.
And today it closes at that line too.
One can also see a descending triangle forming, so if it breaks out to the down side, I will go long on some DXD.
AFAM: today its low touched the support with a long shadow.
shorts:
longs:AFAM, DDM
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Hedged!
This is more like it. No one knows the future, so I hedged my positions with QID, and today it took off, enough to move the stop to profit at $74.11 the open of the long hollow candle.
it is congested in the $75 area, we will see at the end of the day. If there is a bounce up, continue to go down or just getting congested.
shorts:
longs: Always be cautious
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it is congested in the $75 area, we will see at the end of the day. If there is a bounce up, continue to go down or just getting congested.
shorts:
longs: Always be cautious
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Monday, November 10, 2008
QQQQ Teasing the $30.20 level
Look at this chart, QQQQ tested the area between 30.20 and 30.40 for the forth time today. I am just not ready to go bearish on it again, nor I wanted to go long on puts on QQQQ.
But as a hedge, I went long on QID at the end of day.
shorts:
longs:
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But as a hedge, I went long on QID at the end of day.
shorts:
longs:
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Interesting Day so far
Open a long position in AAPL, stopped out an hour later.
Open a long position in ATI, got out later.
That is the draw back of intraday buy stop entry, but that is ok.
New trade:
ABAX: stop at 14.21, very bullish when the market is down and it is just a doji.
BTU: opened at 20DMA, giving a bounce. I will open a position with half of the position size.
shorts:
longs: ABAX, BTU
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Open a long position in ATI, got out later.
That is the draw back of intraday buy stop entry, but that is ok.
New trade:
ABAX: stop at 14.21, very bullish when the market is down and it is just a doji.
BTU: opened at 20DMA, giving a bounce. I will open a position with half of the position size.
shorts:
longs: ABAX, BTU
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bounced up, enter bulllish trades
Today's new trade:
VIP: stop at 13.73
AAPL: stop at 95.72
EZPW: stop at 14.52
ATI: stop at 23.06
New stops for the open trades:
AFAM: 49.20
SPTN: 25.20
CBST: 24.30
PETS: 17.29
The goal is to take any trade risk as soon as possible. If the stock moves up considerably good
Waiting for a decent fill on DDM too.
shorts:
longs: AAPL, EZPW, ATI
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VIP: stop at 13.73
AAPL: stop at 95.72
EZPW: stop at 14.52
ATI: stop at 23.06
New stops for the open trades:
AFAM: 49.20
SPTN: 25.20
CBST: 24.30
PETS: 17.29
The goal is to take any trade risk as soon as possible. If the stock moves up considerably good
Waiting for a decent fill on DDM too.
shorts:
longs: AAPL, EZPW, ATI
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Saturday, November 8, 2008
Saturday afternoon
everyone in the family is taking a long nap, and I told a wonderful nap too. Not a big college football fan.
VIP, Stop at 13.40,
Target 1 at 19.7
Target 2 at 25
SWN, buy stop at 34.74, stop at 30.82,
Target 1 at 40, pull the stop really tight
Target 2 at 45
SSO, DDM, UWM, QLD, one or more when they confirm the harami on Monday.
SSO: Target at 34.5
DDM: Target 1 at 40, Target 2 at 43.6, it made a higher high on the last swing up on Tuesday.
UWM: Target at 27.15
QLD: Target at 37.3
AFAM: 47.30
SPTN: 24.36
PETS: 17.29, using S1, half way of the long white candle on 11/06
CBST: 23.57
shorts:
longs: VIP, SWN, AFAM, SPTN, PETS
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VIP, Stop at 13.40,
Target 1 at 19.7
Target 2 at 25
SWN, buy stop at 34.74, stop at 30.82,
Target 1 at 40, pull the stop really tight
Target 2 at 45
SSO, DDM, UWM, QLD, one or more when they confirm the harami on Monday.
SSO: Target at 34.5
DDM: Target 1 at 40, Target 2 at 43.6, it made a higher high on the last swing up on Tuesday.
UWM: Target at 27.15
QLD: Target at 37.3
AFAM: 47.30
SPTN: 24.36
PETS: 17.29, using S1, half way of the long white candle on 11/06
CBST: 23.57
shorts:
longs: VIP, SWN, AFAM, SPTN, PETS
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Thursday, November 6, 2008
Daily Maintenace
If I break even on every trade, I can trade forever.
Especially for the Ultra Shorts, QID and FXP.
New stops:
QID stop at $68.88
FXP stop at $96.60
The other trades, just use $0.20 below today's low for the stop.
shorts: job report tomorrow
longs: some sleep
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Especially for the Ultra Shorts, QID and FXP.
New stops:
QID stop at $68.88
FXP stop at $96.60
The other trades, just use $0.20 below today's low for the stop.
shorts: job report tomorrow
longs: some sleep
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Long PETS 1 green arrow
At the end of the day, I will open a position on PETS, it showed up on the one green arrow search but when I caught it after the bounce, today is a bullish engulfing. It is a bounce entry for me today.
Stop 0.20 below the low of today.
One more ultra short entry FXP, target $180.
shorts: FXI
longs: PETS, FXP
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Stop 0.20 below the low of today.
One more ultra short entry FXP, target $180.
shorts: FXI
longs: PETS, FXP
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Busy day
I could not sleep last night, sweaty and all. First thing I did this morning was to get out from my Calendar on AAPL, should not have sold the NOV Call, should have got out.
Then Long DEC put on RIMM, as it gaped down and confirmed the bear flag.
Then Long ITM NOV put on QQQQ, it confirmed yesterday, I was just late.
On the Stock side,
Went long on QID, same reasons as the QQQQ.
Went long on CBST, confirm bounce yesterday.
Buy stop executed on AFAM, 0.20 above yesterday's high
put a buy stop on UAUA at 16.34
Still long SPTN, nothing need to be done yet.
shorts: QQQQ, RIMM, x
longs: QID, AFAM, CBST, UAUA, SPTN
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Then Long DEC put on RIMM, as it gaped down and confirmed the bear flag.
Then Long ITM NOV put on QQQQ, it confirmed yesterday, I was just late.
On the Stock side,
Went long on QID, same reasons as the QQQQ.
Went long on CBST, confirm bounce yesterday.
Buy stop executed on AFAM, 0.20 above yesterday's high
put a buy stop on UAUA at 16.34
Still long SPTN, nothing need to be done yet.
shorts: QQQQ, RIMM, x
longs: QID, AFAM, CBST, UAUA, SPTN
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Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Strong selling today
Today's selling had kicked me out of all my remaining swing trades, except for SPTN.
so PRU: break even
APPL and SSO both hit the stops.
But I sold a NOV 120 C on my option and kept my long DEC 120 C today.
Hopefully I can recoup some losses.
Need to wait for the bounce again.
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so PRU: break even
APPL and SSO both hit the stops.
But I sold a NOV 120 C on my option and kept my long DEC 120 C today.
Hopefully I can recoup some losses.
Need to wait for the bounce again.
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Out from UAUA and BTU
I am out from both of the energy trades, UAUA stopped out yesterday for a tiny lost and BTU stopped out today on break even.
Moved the stop on PRU to break even, according to the rules.
Pretty sure there are much more to come today.
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Moved the stop on PRU to break even, according to the rules.
Pretty sure there are much more to come today.
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Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Pendent SSO
Another entry: SSO, coming out from the pendent consolidation with increased volume today, which is icing on the cake for me.
You can trade DDM, for the Dow stocks and QLD for the QQQQ
However there is no entry for UWM.
shorts: none
longs: DDM, SSO, QLD
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You can trade DDM, for the Dow stocks and QLD for the QQQQ
However there is no entry for UWM.
shorts: none
longs: DDM, SSO, QLD
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Long APPL, out from AFAM
AFAM: cautious is the great word here, I moved the stop to the low of yesterday after the doji, and it stopped me out today.
Ready for entering AAPL? Here is the setup
shorts: VIX
longs: AAPL, PRU
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Ready for entering AAPL? Here is the setup
shorts: VIX
longs: AAPL, PRU
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Monday, November 3, 2008
PRU -- long using reversal rules
PRU, earning is out of the way.
stop at 30.07, once it moved $1.00, move the stop to break even, then use 8 DMA for trailing stop.
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!
shorts: ??
longs: PRU
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stop at 30.07, once it moved $1.00, move the stop to break even, then use 8 DMA for trailing stop.
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!shorts: ??
longs: PRU
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Still Bullish?
2 legit entries today,
SPTN, 30 DMA rules, stop at 24.02
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!
UAUA, break out, I added to my position, stop moved to $14.72
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!
shorts: still VIX
longs: UAUA, SPTN
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SPTN, 30 DMA rules, stop at 24.02
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!UAUA, break out, I added to my position, stop moved to $14.72
Quickpost this image to Myspace, Digg, Facebook, and others!shorts: still VIX
longs: UAUA, SPTN
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