buying buying, My disclosures

At least some one noticed


By chinltong

So it basically means, selling has exhausted for the moment and buyers come it.

Here are my holdings in my IRA account:

By chinltong

It is difficult to make a case for new trade in the middle of a upswing or downswing, since most of the stocks move with the market.

Whereas if a stock bounces in a different direction of the market, it could be the leader, in which I like to take a trade. For example, if a DOWNTREDING stock bounced down in a up market, like today, it means it is weaker than the market. But I think the general market is in the UPTRENDING mode, and I'd like to stick with the trades, so I would look for new trends at the end of the pull back, it may come in a couple of days.

shorts: VIX
longs: sitting and waiting

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New Trades anyone?

Well, another Trend reversal trade using the reversal rules.

BTU, stop at 29.30 (0.20 below today's low) and once it moved beyond 8-Day MA, use the 8 Day MA as the trailing stop.

And a 30 day MA break out trade

AFAM, stop at 36.77 (3% below 30 Day MA)

BTW, I also added to my investment positions, BFD, EXG at the end of day. I left out BGY since it has been lagging. My goal is to accumulate enough to generate 10k per year on my IRA.

shorts: VIX, if you are interested
longs: AFAM, BTU

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What to do in a volatile market?

Excellent example today.

GE announced 5 minutes before the close, and brought the market down.
Why did GE do that? They have very good reasons, but GE won't let anyone know. When the dust settles, I am sure we will know.

It was holding very nicely all day long until the sudden announcement.

So what to do?
A) trade smaller size.
B) set wider sotps.

No Entry today, but holding on to my SSO positions. Moved stop to $29.13.

DOW is simply the strongest amongst all four sisters, I have a watch list on all 30 Dow components.

A few worthy of mentioning for bottoming.
AXP, BA, CVX, HD, KFT, JNJ, MCD, MMM and VZ

shorts: not yet
longs: not yet

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Is Market Bottoming?

Is this the bottom?

No one knows, but today's price action gave me entry to SSO, Ultra Long SPY. I will watch it as it reach $34, if there it forms a long candle, I will sell out at $39.80.

After I entered, SSO already moved $1.00 and I moved the stop to break even.

Look at all four sisters, even IWM broke out!



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shorts: VIX
longs: SSO

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Dave's reversal rule

I am not Dave, not even close. So this is one of his rules that I found useful.
You can read his blog at http://chartsignals.blogspot.com/

Setup
Entry:
1 - There must be a double bottom or slightly lower low chart pattern for an upside reversal. For downside reversal there must be a double top or slightly higher high chart pattern.
2 - There must be a bottom/top candlestick reversal pattern present on the second high.
3 - There must be a positive divergence for an upside reversal and a negative divergence for a downside reversal in the stochastic indicator.
Buy Signal: Buy on confirmation of the candlestick pattern.

Exit:
4 - Initial stop loss is set 20 cents below the low of the candle pattern for an upside reversal and 20 cents above the high of the candle pattern for a downside reversal.
5 - Once the trade produces a profit of $1.00, stop loss is moved to breakeven (the entry price).
6 - Once the eight day MA moves past the breakeven point the eight day MA becomes the trailing stop. The trailing stop is the Target Price.


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Sectors summary

At the end of Friday, there are two categories of sectors:

1. Higher Low: Financials, Health Care, Transport, Energy, Utilities
   
2. Lower or equal Low: Industrials, Oil & Gas, Technology, Steel, Coal, Discretionary, Staples, Materials and Retail
   

Dow, S&P and Rut all made a higher low, Nasdaq made an equal low.

shorts: married to your opinions
longs: mentally flexible, take quick profit

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are we bottoming?

The chart is saying so. Today's higher low hammer and confirmation tomorrow would done the job.

As a trader, I need to maintained mental flexibility. Enter the trade when you are supposed to, Exit when you are supposed to.

Closed all of the bearish positions and went long on SPY calls and SSO

Closed my short Calls on IWM and let the long call ride. What a day, another 600+ range.

shorts: the ultra shorts
longs: SPY, SSO

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Back to trade with the trend

Quick list for the short ETF's
stop are place between yesterday and today's gap, target are all the the last high made on Last Friday.

DUG, stop at 50.82
EEV, stop at 114.42
QID, stop at 68.42
TWM, stop at 99.82

Now follow up on my trade on IWM, my fibo was wrong because there was a bad print on Sep 19, I did not found out until after market yesterday when I looked at the TOS chart. I am completely responsible, no one else, should have double checked.

So today, I put up a short call vertical on the IWM when it turned down.
I also put up half of the position size on the QQQQ put during the day, and will add to it at the end.

shorts: QQQQ
longs: DUG, EEV, QID, TWM

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Counter Trend Trade Ideas (IWM, UWM, MVV)

Charles Dow, stated market retraces 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3.

So today on this counter trend bounce, I measured the 1/3 retracement as my target, and it also happens to be the congested price level tested on last Monday and Tuesday.

A) UWM, Ultra IWM, stop at 26.82, sell 80% at 34, keep the rest


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B) Calls on IWM, target when IWM hits 60, stop at at 52.45

C) MVV, Ultra MidCap 400, stop at 31.42, sell 80% at 41.91, keep the rest

Charts are pretty much the same, so there is no need to repeat it.

another point of the ultra shorts are doing their jobs.
QID (-23%) went back to the level I entered 2 Thursday ago.
EEV (-77%)
TWM (-21%)

Best of success everyone

shorts: impatient
longs: IWM, UWM, MVV

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Actively watch your retirement account

The recent volatility has led me to ask around in my office, for some horrible experience.

Though this downturn has not completed, there are plenty of stories from the last down turn.

Mr A: had close to 2 million in his retirement account, 100% of his retirement is on his company's stock. At that point it was worth more than $900, split adjusted. He did not watch nor move his money out. Now that company's stock is at $1.50 and in his late 50's, nothing he can do.

Mr B in his 50's: again close to 2 million in his IRA, 100% on his company's account, different company from above. He saw the stock starting to collapse and called his broker to move his investment so something else. Unfortunately he need a PIN to move the investment. They sent him the PIN, it was lost in the mail. Three weeks later he called them again, they sent him again. After six weeks, his retirement account has dwindled to just barely 5 digits.

Ms C in her 40's, was once almost had an over a million account, lost it, and said it is her destiny.

At the peak of last dot com bubble, I was 95% on my company's stock, I only moved my money out after it has lost 50%. I took me 5 years to recoup my losses, I am on the better off side of the ledger already.

Stories told. But none as real as those I heard from the first persons.

So beware, no body knows the bottom. But if you don't always keep an eye on your money, they will run away.

shorts: buy and hold
longs: active management

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Never ever add to your losing position

Yes, this is a no no, when we trade. But I broke this rule today. I added my AIG position today. I am at a point this is my max position size.

1st lot: 3.01
2nd lot: 3.87
3rd lot: 2.67

DONE!. The plan is to sit on these long term options with no time decay.

Why AIG, not anything else?
1)it is below $5.
2)Uncle Sam open his wallet already to bless this company.
3)Management tries to work things out.

Still AIG can go to zero. So position size appropriately.

Let me bring out another stock, NT. And here is the reason for me not entering into NT.
1) NT did not dropped like a rock from, it dies of chronic down trend.
2) No Gov't support.
3) Management is useless.

Just my 2 cents.

shorts: Tech, NT
longs: Gov't supported companies

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Trading Dry Spell!

I woke up this morning, Futures are all over the place, from up 200 to down 200. So what will the 1/2 % rate cut do?? Nothing.

We need to trade Psychology now. Price actions are too quick to follow for a multi-day trader like me.

Just can't resist, need to put this chart in the history.


By chinltong

I have been waiting for a bounce since Monday close, it felt like 2 years too long so far. But it did not happen,

Remember: The Market is always right.

As anyone can tell, I don't see any entry for a couple of days, this dry spell is not very normal. Moreover, the option spread are RIDICULOUS, my last trade on QQQQ, the spread was $0.05 on a sub $1.00 option!!!

For those spread traders, it is not easy to get a fill. So it is better to take a deep breath and wait for the inevitable bounce then short something. Anything.

shorts: waiting
longs: family time

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Dow ended at 9447

Support and Resistance are AREAS, not precise point, having said so, yesterday's low was 9525, today's 9447. I'd say not yet, but close.

Yesterday I went long on UYG (no stop) and long XLF OTM calls which stopped out today.

As for the short bans, I don't think it will have much effect, and then I can be wrong.

No trades today, no new shorts, the move made was too drastic.
No new longs, either.

shorts: NIL
longs: patient

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Worldwide wreckage?

Don't really think so. it is time to take some profit, I closed my QQQQ puts today and sold 80% of my QID, and tightened my stop on QID to +$5 of my entry. Because the QQQQ has reached my bearish target today at $34.05.

It is not a time to be hero, just be nimble.

Check out the chart for Dow, it has completed a bear flag. If the support holds, it will bounce for a few days to weeks (like last time) before it plunge again. Basically, I am saying DO NOT open new bearish position today!



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I believe all index move together, so I am very cautious and take profit. Wait for the next bounce down, it should be as specular.

I will venture into UYG at the end of today, it is the strongest of all sectors at the moment.

shorts: impatient
longs: UYG

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New trades for the new reality

The "rescue" package is signed into the law, the all-anticipated news event is over.

No sign that the market is turning around or making a bottom. Instead it seems to be making more lower lows.

As I mentioned before NASDAQ already broken below 2,000 pt. that was pretty solid on Friday too. Russell has broken below supports set in March and July.

Emerging Markets, take a look at EEM, or its inverse EEV.

So just hop on one of those weaker sectors, or inverse ETF, enjoy the ride.

For the fainted heart, consider IEI and short term bond fund.

shorts: the market
longs: TWM, EEV, IEI

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Stocks Rolled Over

Today, opened high, ran high then steam loses quickly after THE bill was passed.

Nasdaq closed below 2000 again, all indications are pointing to low, this is the weakest amongst all 4 sisters.
Then the Dow and S&P and finally Rut. But when the market trends all four sisters will move together.

shorts: the market, except for financials
longs: banks

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Nerve Wrecking day will be

First core tenet of Technical Analysis

Market Action Discount Everything, Everything is a loaded word. It is because all of the news, insider information, dividend, and estimated values, etc., are all reflected immediately on price. But technicians are usually late to the trade, because most of them need confirmation of the move is in progress.

Jesse Livermore described in his book: How to Trade in Stocks stated that stocks usually bounce three times. But this is loaded observation too. The way he counted as a bounced may not be the same as mine.

So at the end of the day, I show a 3 mos chart to him and let him tell me if it is going up. In his words there are three:
1) up
2) up
3) up and down and up and down

Best of success everyone.

At closing, the NASDAQ closed below a strong support level yesterday aka 2,000 pt.
Either you can enter a long position on QID, or puts on QQQQ or anything in your delight.

shorts: QQQQ
longs: QID

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Freebies

Internet is full of free stuffs, here is a prime example.

List of free books


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Bail out or not, Let's Trade for a living

Overall the index are sideways, but as I planned before: I am adding to my position of AIG on a confirmed bounced.


AIG, no stop on this one



Still on a uptrend, I like the trade, but these days we need to set the stop wider because of the market volatility.
BWLD,
stop: 37.42
target: 48.62


shorts: over trade
longs:AIG and BWLD

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